Last week, I attended an IBD interest group meetup in NYC, where Gil Morales, Co-Author of 'How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short' was the speaker. I enjoyed the book, although I have to admit, I haven't shorted anything in this whole downturn. I used to think nothing of shorting when I traded futures, but I feel like so far, I just don't have the knack for shorting stocks.
Gil introduced us to his own Punch Bowl of Death pattern, where a stocks falls hard after a big run up, makes a rounded run back up, aiming toward the old highs, then fails. It's like an aborted cup and handle after a huge run, with a high volume failure where the handle would begin. He considers these patterns to be excellent short set ups.
As a current example, he offered FSLR. I've been long FSLR from 179, so I've been feeling kind of piggy about it. But the stock has growth, so I've been sticking with it. Looking at the chart, I don't see the POD formation. There is no failure at the after the bowl. But it does have the look of a late stage base.
So I've been conflicted about it. 300 has been resistance for months. And after last nights earnings, it still is. The numbers last night were strong. Analysts are expecting the next to quarters to be better. But the chart is actually kind of ominous.
I sold half my FSLR at 280 before earnings. I figured it was the prudent thing to do, and I had enough of a cushion that I wouldn't feel too bad if it disappointed. Instead, it beat solidly, opened up, but still can't hold above 300. I haven't made up my mind what to do about it.
you've already sold half...you should hang on to the rest. that's what i think.
Posted by: the wife | August 11, 2008 at 12:34 PM