Famous Trader

(FSLR) First Solar: Punchbowl of Death, or Rocket to 400?

Last week, I attended an IBD interest group meetup in NYC, where Gil Morales, Co-Author of 'How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short' was the speaker.  I enjoyed the book, although I have to admit, I haven't shorted anything in this whole downturn.  I used to think nothing of shorting when I traded futures, but I feel like so far, I just don't have the knack for shorting stocks.

Gil introduced us to his own Punch Bowl of Death pattern, where a stocks falls hard after a big run up, makes a rounded run back up, aiming toward the old highs, then fails. It's like an aborted cup and handle after a huge run, with a high volume failure where the handle would begin.  He considers these patterns to be excellent short set ups.

As a current example, he offered FSLR.  I've been long FSLR from 179, so I've been feeling kind of piggy about it.  But the stock has growth, so I've been sticking with it.  Looking at the chart, I don't see the POD formation.  There is no failure at the after the bowl.  But it does have the look of a late stage base.

So I've been conflicted about it.  300 has been resistance for months.  And after last nights earnings, it still is.  The numbers last night were strong.  Analysts are expecting the next to quarters to be better.  But the chart is actually kind of ominous.

I sold half my FSLR at 280 before earnings.  I figured it was the prudent thing to do, and I had enough of a cushion that I wouldn't feel too bad if it  disappointed.  Instead, it beat solidly, opened up, but still can't hold above 300.  I haven't made up my mind what to do about it.

S&P 500 down 51.78!

Wow.....what a vicious sell off!  Days like this always put a knot in my stomach.  Here's a harrowing admission: I was short OEX puts on Black Monday in 1987!  I learned a painful lesson about selling naked premium and have never done it since.

I wish I could say I was short or even flat going into today, but I'm not.  I'm roughly 85% long, with the rest in cash.  I bought EMC yesterday at 19.05, and bought some more today at 18.50.  Very nerve wracking.

As of yesterday's close, the IBD 100 Portolio had lost 3.6% since it's inception.  Not much change from the Close of the 24th.  I expect it will be sharply lower at today's close.  Once I get the index coded, it will be interesting to see if the price action of the 1BD 100 stocks gave any forewarning  of this  market decline.