Hello. I'm back. If you are among the handful of readers who actually followed my IBD Index posts, you know that I started a new job in September, and it has distracted me from my index research. Regarding my own trading, the job has distracted me from that as well. I'm about %50 long equities, %50 in cash. I let some trades turn into investments (I know, a generally bad idea), so I'm sitting on some losses, but I still think those stocks will rebound.
I plan to return to my finance blogging, though I'm not sure if I'll continue to pursue the IBD index. However, I really wanted to post some of my thoughts about the 2008 presidential campaign. I'm a Democrat, a strong opponent of President Bush (at this point, the two are virtually synonymous), and a strong supporter of Barack Obama.
John Edwards has dropped out of the race. Now the defacto 2 person race for the democratic nomination has become an actual 2 person race. So for better or worse, a vote for Barack is a vote against Hillary, as a vote for Hillary is a vote against Barack. Nobody likes to frame the race in this way. We Obama supporters want to convince you Clinton supporters to vote FOR our Barack just as you want to convince us to vote FOR Hillary.
But I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to try to convince you to like Obama better than Clinton. While I genuinely believe that Barack is better, I think I understand your preference for Hillary and reservations about Barack. I don't agree with them, but I respect the merits of your view. None the less, I hope to convince you to vote AGAINST Clinton anyway. That's right, despite the validity of your concerns and preferences, you should override your evaluation and vote for Barack Obama, and AGAINST Hillary Clinton.
I think there are 2 predominant reasons why many Democrats favor Hillary. The first can be described in largely positive terms. There is a belief that Hillary is more experienced, more mature, and this experience will make her a more adept politician and a better leader. This is not an unreasonable point. I don't agree with it. I'm in the camp that says Hillary's experience represents entrenchment in an outmoded brand of politics. And her experience with the business end of the republican attack machine, which tied Bill Clinton's political hands through much of his presidency would be repeated if she were to be elected. But as I said, it's not imprudent to value experience in a job as important as the presidency.
The second reason is far more negative. It has to do with Hillary's support skewing to lower incomes, lower education levels, and Latino voters. It is to some degree, a kind of racism, or perhaps I should say, it is a by product of racism. What I'm describing is the remnants of racism as a malignant institution in this country.
I believe racism as an institution pits minorities and the working classes against each other. One can understand how a group that feels it is struggling can see politics as a zero sum game. I believe the Latino and lower income democratic skew towards Hillary Clinton is a reflection of fear that a vote for Obama is a vote for more attention to African American issues at the expense of attention to Latino issues, and at the expense of attention to issues of lower income whites.
Obama's support skews toward younger democrats, wealthier democrats, and better educated democrats. These are the demographics who are least inclined to view and fear politics as a zero sum competition between us and them. (Disclosure: I'm a White Male, 43 years old, from an unusual background. I was raised in an Inter-racial, Brady bunch kind of step family. I have a college degree in Computer Science, and would be classified as upper middle class. Except for my age, I'm Obama's classic demo).
It's an unfortunate situation, and I believe electing Obama can help us break this cycle of self-perpetuating fear. But I recognize that it's easier to say "let's give everybody a turn" when you're at the head of the line, and confident that letting somebody ahead won't prevent you from getting in.
I understand your concerns and preferences, but I believe there is ONE overriding reason why you should look past them and vote for Obama, and I believe most Democrats already understand it. It is the same reason that John Edwards was never really a competitor. John Edwards was the conscience of the Democratic party in this nomination race. His consistent focus on eradicating poverty reminded us and the other candidates that we are the party of compassion, not just centrists who would momentarily lean left if we were startled.
I believe most Democrats admired John Edwards, but few of us were willing to vote for him for one simple reason. He was unelectable. We all know that his passionate rhetoric, steeped in the language of class warfare, would not appeal to the broad electorate. We didn't vote for him because we knew he would LOSE in November.
It is perhaps less obvious, but I believe that you should not vote for Hillary Clinton for the same reason. In a national election Hillary Clinton will LOSE! Is her loss a sure thing? Of course, there are no sure things in politics. Her loss is certainly not as certain as Edwards would have been. But I believe it is much more likely than her supporters think.
The Republican party is in disarray. The G.W. Bush administration and policies have been discredited. All of the Republican strategists believe there is only one thing likely to unify and motivate the party: a campaign against Hillary Clinton. I don't think it's fair how much they hate her, but hate her they do. Republicans who couldn't be bothered to get out and vote for McCain or Romney, will line up early to vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton. This is pretty much beyond dispute. Hillary is the candidate who Republicans believe they have the best chance of beating. They all have at least a begrudging admiration for Obama. They certainly won't be thinking about turning out just to vote AGAINST him.
(Have you heard Bill Bennet gush about Obama on CNN? Quite the inter-party crush going on there.)
I think everybody agrees that Obama has the better chance of beating McCain in a national election. But Hillary supporters think that her chances are good enough. They're thinking that an Obama victory is a great bet, but a Hillary victory is still a decent bet. I think they are wrong. They think Hillary will be running against George Bush. They're wrong (presumptive Republican nominee) John McCain is NOT George Bush.
Once it sinks in with Republicans that they can elect one of their own AND end the embarrassing debacle of the Bush presidency, they will coalesce. All Democrats need to recognize that the general election will be tougher than we think, because McCain isn't Bush.
Clinton supporters also need to recognize something about Obama supporters. We are passionate in our support for him. We really believe he won't just be a good president, but a GREAT one. It's been a common line of thought in our party that all of our candidates from the nomination were and are pretty good, and that we would support any of them in a national election. But I'm not so sure that will play out in November.
We'd support any of them against George Bush. But what about against McCain? We all view Hillary as being better than Bush, but so is McCaine. All things being equal, we'd prefer Hillary, but things aren't equal. If Clinton wins the nomination, Obama supporters will be doing some simple math in November. If Hillary wins, it will be 8 years before we'll get another chance to vote for Obama. If she loses, it will be only 4.
Given the Republican antipathy towards Hillary, the ambivalence of enthusiasm for her from Obama supporters, and the recognition that McCain will be harder to beat than the Bush legacy, I'd say that Hillary's chances are actually negative. But let's say I'm being too pessimistic. I think it's pretty conservative to say that a Clinton victory is a 50-50 proposition. What has happened over last decade in races where the Democrats and Republicans split the vote around 50-50? Do we really want to hope that this time, we'll be able to eek out a victory in another hanging chads moment?
That's why I ask you Clinton supporters to reconsider. She may be your preference, but I believe that she will LOSE in the general election. Vote for Barack Obama as our party's nominee, and he will WIN the presidency.
